Black Friday Isn't What It Used to Be

Black Friday bargains no longer tempt people to leave Thanksgiving tables for midnight mall runs. Brawls in store aisles over toys and TVs with limited-time discounts are spectacles of holidays past. Online shopping and retailers launching discounts weeks before the turkey feast have subdued that kind of fervor, the AP reports. But the sales event still has enough enthusiasts to make the day after Thanksgiving the one when US stores get the most shoppers coming in the door. For that reason, Black Friday still rules as the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

• This year's kickoff comes as consumer confidence in the US economy fell this month in the aftermath of the federal government shutdown, weak hiring, and stubborn inflation, according to a report The Conference Board issued Tuesday. Many retail executives have reported customers becoming more discerning and increasingly focused on deals while at the same time remaining willing to splash out for important occasions like the start of the school year and the winter holidays, creating a halo effect.

• "Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said this week of shoppers' moods heading into Black Friday. "But business surveys also report consumers are being more sensitive to prices and selective in spending."
• While planning for the holidays in the spring and summer, retail companies were wrestling with the volatility of President Trump 's wide-ranging tariffs on imported goods. Many accelerated shipments of some merchandise before the tariffs took effect or decided to absorb some of the import tax costs instead of raising prices for customers. Market research firm Circana said that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared with the first four months of the year. Toys, baby products, housewares, and team sports equipment were among the hardest hit categories.

• Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, foot traffic in recent weeks surpassed the numbers from pre-pandemic 2019, says Jill Renslow, the mall's chief business development and marketing officer. "We're seeing a very positive start to the holiday season," Renslow says. "The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong."
• The growth in online sales also has been robust so far. From Nov. 1 to Nov. 23, consumers spent $79.7 billion, according to web tracking and analysis platform Adobe Analytics. That represented a gain of 7.5% from a year earlier and was bigger than Adobe's 5.3% growth forecast for the season. Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods, predicted a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24. That compares with a 4.1% increase last year.
• According to Adobe Analytics, Thanksgiving Day was the best time to shop online to get the deepest discount on sporting goods. But Black Friday will be the best time to buy TVs, toys, and appliances online. Cyber Monday, however, should be the best time to buy apparel and computers. The AP has a list of Black Friday opening times for major chains here.