He Bet the Government Couldn't Spend Less, and Won

Plenty of Americans doubted whether Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency could truly cut federal spending. One skeptical DC tax economist bet his life savings on it. In the Wall Street Journal, Richard Rubin profiles 37-year-old Alan Cole, who moved all $342,195.63 he had excluding retirement accounts and home equity into bets made on the prediction market Kalshi. To win, federal spending in every quarter of 2025 just had to exceed Q4 2024 levels.

As Rubin explains, Cole figured that even if Musk did chip away at the size of the federal workforce and the number of government contracts, "he couldn't meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending." He was right. The official 2025 numbers were posted on Feb. 20, and every quarter cleared Cole's benchmark by at least $66 billion, turning his all-in move into a 37% gain and a $128,000 profit, minus taxes. Read the full story for more, including his wife's role in greenlighting the move.