Iceland has formally classified the possible collapse of a crucial current system in the Atlantic as a national security threat, marking the first time a climate-related event has been treated as an existential risk by the country's government. Climate Minister Johann Pall Johannsson told Reuters the decision puts all ministries on alert, with coordinated efforts underway to assess risks and develop disaster preparedness policies. The current in question, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, carries warm tropical water northward and helps ensure Europe's winters are mild.
Scientists warn that accelerated Arctic ice melt, particularly from Greenland, could disrupt this flow, potentially setting off a new ice age with far colder winters across Northern Europe. The consequences of an AMOC collapse could also spread far beyond Iceland or Europe. Disrupted rainfall patterns could threaten agriculture in regions as far-flung as India, South America, and Africa; the situation could also speed up warming in Antarctica.
Iceland's government is evaluating risks to everything from energy and food security to international transportation and infrastructure. Other Northern European countries are increasing research and considering similar steps, though some, like Britain, still see an abrupt collapse as unlikely this century. Johannsson stressed the need for action even amid scientific uncertainty, citing the rapid pace of climate change and the centrality of agriculture and fisheries to Iceland's economy. "We cannot afford to wait for definitive, long-term research before acting," he said.
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