Monarch butterflies just scored a modest win in Mexico's forests. A new World Wildlife Fund Mexico survey finds that eastern monarchs occupied about 7.2 acres of oyamel fir forest this winter—up from 4.4 acres during the previous winter, and 2.2 acres the year before that—in a 64% spike that suggests their steep decline has at least been put on pause, reports Vox. For context, the average during the first decade of monitoring was roughly 21 acres, with scientists noting that about 15 acres is the threshold for a secure population. Just three decades ago, wintering butterflies inhabited a much more ample 45 forest acres, per the WWF.
Experts credit last year's favorable weather and scattered habitat efforts, like restoring milkweed along the butterflies' migration route. But the core problem remains: Milkweed was largely wiped out in the 1990s as herbicide-tolerant GMO crops enabled broad use of glyphosate across farm fields. Meanwhile, the monarch's proposed listing as "threatened" under the Endangered Species Act is stalled until at least later this year, prompting lawsuits by environmental groups.
Researchers warn that climate change and extreme weather could quickly erase recent gains. As retired Fish and Wildlife Service official Lori Nordstrom puts it, meaningful recovery will require regaining "a lot of habitat," not just a few backyard patches. "Monarchs need our help, and we need monarchs, because they are spectacular and irreplaceable," says Tierra Curry of the Center for Biological Diversity. "It would be unforgivable for their epic migrations to collapse because of political cowardice on enacting range-wide protections for them."
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