Nate Silver

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You Betcha: Palin Won't Run
 You Betcha: Palin Won't Run 
Analysis
Oct 21, 2009 12:38 PM CDT

You Betcha: Palin Won't Run

She has nothing to gain, and no hope of victory

(Newser) - Tom Schaller is so sure that Sarah Palin won’t run in 2012, and wouldn’t be nominated if she did, that he’s made a bet on it with fellow FiveThirtyEight.com writer Nate Silver. Schaller’s argument, in a nutshell, is that short of winning the presidency or...

Rush Got Bum Rap on Racist Slurs
 Rush Got Bum Rap 
 on  Racist Slurs 


nate silver
Oct 15, 2009 11:19 AM CDT

Rush Got Bum Rap on Racist Slurs

Face it, liberal media: Claims he said that stuff look pretty bogus

(Newser) - Rush Limbaugh is getting such a raw deal in the media that even Nate Silver—who got his start on the Daily Kos—has come to his defense. Lately CNN and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch have repeated racist statements that appear to be "completely made up," Silver writes....

Climate Bill's Best Hope? Drill, Baby, Drill

Kerry/Graham compromise could pick up 2-4 votes

(Newser) - The new climate bill introduced with some fanfare by John Kerry and Lindsey Graham actually has a fighting chance of getting through the Senate, thanks to its offshore drilling provision. Despite Democrats’ supermajority, cap-and-trade legislation probably only had between 52 and 55 votes before this. But this bill, which also...

Delaware Now the 2010 Senate Race to Watch
Delaware Now the 2010 Senate Race to Watch
ANALYSIS
Oct 7, 2009 11:49 AM CDT

Delaware Now the 2010 Senate Race to Watch

GOP's Castle could beat likely foe Beau Biden: Silver

(Newser) - GOP Rep. Mike Castle just made Delaware’s 2010 senatorial election interesting, writes Nate Silver. The former governor threw in yesterday against “hypothetical” opponent Beau Biden for his father’s open seat, and the odds are decent it will change hands. Though the popular moderate Republican could run into...

Fox Poll Numbers on Health Care Sneakily Biased
Fox Poll Numbers on Health Care Sneakily Biased
nate Silver Analysis
Oct 6, 2009 11:47 AM CDT

Fox Poll Numbers on Health Care Sneakily Biased

Health care question asked after leading ones

(Newser) - If Fox News’ latest poll were trustworthy, it would be bad news for Democrats; it turned up just 33% of the public supporting health care reform efforts, to 55% opposed, a far worse number than other polls. The natural liberal response: “It’s a Fox poll, so of course...

Beck a PoMo Conservative— and It's Working Well for Him

(Newser) - Glenn Beck’s popularity as compared to the more “traditional American conservatism” of, say, Rush Limbaugh heralds the advent of a new archetype, Nate Silver writes on FiveThirtyEight: “Beck is a PoMoCon—a postmodern conservative.” A recent poll shows Beck and Limbaugh equally popular while Limbaugh’s...

Expanded Gambling Won't Be a Windfall: Silver

(Newser) - The many states hoping gambling will revive their troubled budgets are in for an unpleasant surprise, writes Nate Silver for Esquire. Gambling is supposed to be recession-proof, but that hasn’t been the case this time. "The year 2008 was the first time in history that total casino gaming...

Silver: Ignore Poll Showing Docs Opposed to Reform

(Newser) - A new Investors’ Business Daily poll showing doctors opposed to President Obama’s health care reform is generating some buzz today, but it's so flawed that Nate Silver has only this advice: “Completely ignore” it, he writes on FiveThirtyEight. Here’s why:
  • It's conducted by mail: Hardly anyone does
...

Hold On, Blue Dogs: Your Voters Like the Public Option

(Newser) - When top Blue Dog Dem Mike Ross came out against the public option, he said that “an overwhelming number” of his constituents opposed it. Maybe he's gotten emails to that effect, but if he’d actually bothered to poll his district, he’d probably get a different story, writes...

50% Approval Rating Just Another Number: Silver
50% Approval Rating Just Another Number: Silver
ANALYSIS
Aug 31, 2009 3:11 PM CDT

50% Approval Rating Just Another Number: Silver

Obama likely to win re-election, Dems to keep House majority with current numbers

(Newser) - Much has been made of President Obama’s 50% job-approval rating, but that number in and of itself is “not particularly newsworthy,” writes Nate Silver for FiveThirtyEight.com. Obama could probably win in 2012 even with approval below 50%: George W. Bush was re-elected with the approval of...

Republicans Gain Ground in Senate Races
Republicans Gain Ground in Senate Races
analysis
Aug 24, 2009 11:47 AM CDT

Republicans Gain Ground in Senate Races

Latest trends show even Reid, Spector, Dodd in trouble: Silver

(Newser) - Things are looking brighter for Republicans in the Senate, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. In his monthly ranking of which seats are most likely to switch parties in 2010, Republicans have made a big move. Of the 10 seats that look more likely to switch hands, seven favor Republicans....

Health-Care Protesters Winning Sympathy: Poll

34% 'more sympathetic' to protesters, 21% less

(Newser) - Town-hall protesters have succeeded in making some Americans “more sympathetic” to their health care views, a USA Today/Gallup poll finds. Of 1,000 adults surveyed, 34% say they’re now more sympathetic of the protesters’ stance, while 21% say they’re less. Among independents, that grows to a 2-to-1...

Unemployment Will Probably Miss 10%: Silver
Unemployment Will Probably Miss 10%: Silver
Analysis
Aug 10, 2009 11:52 AM CDT

Unemployment Will Probably Miss 10%: Silver

(Newser) - Lots of economists are predicting that unemployment, which at last count hung at 9.4%, will hit 10% before the calendar changes, but Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com disagrees. For that to happen, the economy would need to lose another million jobs or so, and "the jobs picture is...

Republicans Winning the Shouting Match
 Republicans Winning 
 the Shouting Match 
Analysis
Aug 4, 2009 2:03 PM CDT

Republicans Winning the Shouting Match

(Newser) - As unbelievable as this sounds, given the huge crowds Barack Obama was able to drum up not so long ago, the Democrats could be losing the enthusiasm wars, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. A new poll from Virginia shows that in its upcoming gubernatorial race, 52% of voters will...

Ethics Scandal Is No Waterloo for Palin
Ethics Scandal Is No Waterloo for Palin
Analysis
Jul 22, 2009 10:50 AM CDT

Ethics Scandal Is No Waterloo for Palin

Gov will skate past latest allegations unscathed: Nate Silver

(Newser) - The latest ethics complaint against Sarah Palin—investigators believe she misused her position to solicit personal legal donations—won’t leave a scratch, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. Here’s how to predict which scandals will make it big:
  • Can it be reduced to a sound bite? Nope. Heck,
...

Fear, Not Fraud, May Have Won Iranian Election

(Newser) - A pre-election poll of Iranian voters favoring Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been held up as proof that the election was fair. Not so, writes Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight.com. The poll, conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, found that 33.8% of respondents intended to vote for Ahmadinejad, versus 13.6% for...

Zagat Is Wrong: Peet's Is Better Than Starbucks
Zagat Is Wrong:
Peet's Is Better Than Starbucks
OPINION
Jun 9, 2009 11:27 AM CDT

Zagat Is Wrong: Peet's Is Better Than Starbucks

Bad methodology gave Seattle giant the survey win: Nate Silver

(Newser) - Zagat’s annual fast-food survey served up its usual batch of surprises, but one stood out for Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com fame. Somehow, some way, Starbucks beat Peet’s Coffee for best coffee chain. A travesty of that magnitude can only mean mistaken methodology, Silver contends; Starbucks is fine,...

Republicans Hang Pawlenty Out to Dry
Republicans Hang Pawlenty Out to Dry
Analysis
May 6, 2009 12:14 PM CDT

Republicans Hang Pawlenty Out to Dry

By refusing to certify Franken, Minn. gov risks own future

(Newser) - By refusing to certify Al Franken’s Senate win, Tim Pawlenty is taking a big political risk, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. The Minnesota governor’s numbers have dropped precipitously since November; he currently has just a 46% approval rating, with 50% disapproving. The Franken/Coleman fracas may not bear...

Republicans Take Page From Libertarian Book
Republicans Take Page From Libertarian Book
Analysis
Apr 22, 2009 12:42 PM CDT

Republicans Take Page From Libertarian Book

From tea parties to budget proposals, GOP changes tune

(Newser) - It looks as though the GOP is turning libertarian, says Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. The tea parties it championed last week take their cue from libertarian movement shindigs, and participation was high in libertarian-leaning states like New Hampshire. The GOP’s alternative budget was a like-minded proposal, "dramatically...

Coleman-Like Tactics Won't Swing NY Race
Coleman-Like Tactics Won't Swing NY Race
Analysis
Apr 15, 2009 11:37 AM CDT

Coleman-Like Tactics Won't Swing NY Race

Tedisco challenges Gillibrand's own ballot, and he's still doomed

(Newser) - Jim Tedisco is doing everything in the book to try to drag out the race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in Congress—including challenging the new US senator's own ballot—but he's doomed to failure, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com. Democrat Scott Murphy has received 53% of the absentee ballots...

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