predictions

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Recession Will Cost More Jobs, End 'Before Long': Fed

(Newser) - The Federal Reserve is confident the general economy is turning around but still pessimistic on the jobs part, the Wall Street Journal reports. In June meeting minutes issued today, those gathered agreed that data since April “indicated that the economic contraction was slowing and that the decline in activity...

Jacko Knew He'd Die Young: Lisa Marie

Told former wife years ago he feared he'd end up like Elvis

(Newser) - The King of Pop was sure he would follow the King to an early grave, blogs Lisa Marie Presley. During his brief marriage to Elvis's daughter, Michael Jackson "stated with an almost calm certainty, 'I am afraid that I am going to end up like him.'" Jackson wasn't...

NOAA Predicts Average Hurricane Season

(Newser) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the 2009 hurricane season will see nine to 14 tropical storms, of which four to seven will develop into full-fledged hurricanes, the Tampa Tribune reports. As many as three could become Category 3 storms, with winds above 111 mph. The prediction jibes with...

Cramer Ain't That Bad a Stock Picker, Actually

(Newser) - Jon Stewart, take note: Jim Cramer is not that bad at picking stocks, the New York Times reports. A study of Cramer’s televised market advice shows that the former hedge fund manager beat the market in 2005-07. The raw numbers from the fictional “Cramer portfolio” outperformed the S&...

Italy Squelched Scientist Who Predicted Quake

Researcher cited for 'spreading alarm,' forced to retract findings

(Newser) - An Italian scientist had predicted the quake that killed at least 92 early this morning near L’Aquila, but was silenced by the authorities, Reuters reports. Gioacchino Giuliani found evidence a month ago that a strong quake was brewing and organized a public-awareness campaign—which earned him a reprimand from...

US Will Collapse by 2010: Russian

(Newser) - The “collapse of the American dream” is complete, says a Russian scholar, and President Obama will declare martial law and the US will splinter into six regions by the end of 2010, the AP reports. Igor Panarin, the dean of Russia's Foreign Ministry school, cited school shootings, the prison...

Nate Silver Turns Crystal Ball on Oscars

After number-crunching, Slumdog is tops

(Newser) - FiveThirtyEight.com stats-cruncher extraordinaire Nate Silver shifts his sights from politics to the Oscars in New York magazine. He compiled data from 30 years of Academy Awards to discover the best predictors of success, and found that other awards (SAGs, Golden Globes) carry the most weight. Genre is also key;...

Tech Predictions&mdash;From 1968
 Tech Predictions—From 1968 
Nov 20, 2008 7:31 AM CST

Tech Predictions—From 1968

Seeing a future full of computers and four hour work days

(Newser) - In 1968 a science fiction writer made some predictions about what 2008 might look like on Nov. 18, 2008. Take a step back into the future with this list from Sci Fi:
  1. Online shopping: Long before Al Gore invented the Internet, he predicted shoppers would pay their bills and get
...

Polling Guru Nabs $700K Book Deal
Polling Guru Nabs $700K Book Deal
Nov 15, 2008 11:58 AM CST

Polling Guru Nabs $700K Book Deal

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame will write two tomes

(Newser) - Polling expert Nate Silver, the statistical mastermind behind FiveThirtyEight.com, has a new number to crunch: $700,000. That’s roughly how much Silver will net in his new two-book deal with Penguin, the New York Observer reports. Silver will pen one tome on the art of prediction, and a...

Election Predictors Who Got It Wrong

Many pundits ruled out Obama victory early

(Newser) - With the election over, what's more fun than calling out all those whose predictions were off—way off. Der Spiegel lists some highlights:
  • "He cannot win, Bill. He cannot win." Hillary Clinton, on Barack Obama
  • "We'll win Florida." Rudy Giuliani
  • "Virginians are really getting fired
...

$100 Oil Will Return Soon Enough: Study

Price will rebound with economy, likely to hit $200 a barrel in 2030

(Newser) - If today’s price of $60 per barrel of oil seems too good to be true, that’s because it is. Oil prices will rebound to $100 a barrel once the economy recovers, and climb toward $200 by 2030, the market’s most comprehensive review predicts. Output is declining at...

Obama Wins in Doonesbury Version of World

Dem's triumph in strip set for next week; some papers dismayed

(Newser) - Cartoonist Garry Trudeau has put his newspaper clients in to a bit of a pickle, the Washington Post reports. In a bid to stay current, Wednesday’s installment of "Doonesbury"—written a week in advance—will show characters reacting to a Barack Obama victory. The choice is “...

A Baseball Nerd Turns to Election Stats

Nate Silver was right on the Rays; he's now calling the presidency

(Newser) - Give the sheer number of political polls being produced, and the history of many of them proving wrong, it takes a seriously smart statistician (and something of a nerd) to predict the presidential race with any authority. Nate Silver, the man who "revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats,"...

Bailout Bumble Sinks Mac in T-Shirt Race

DC hawker plans to ditch GOP altogether if Palin whiffs in tomorrow's debate

(Newser) - Souvenir vendors in Washington may have more vested in tomorrow’s debate than most, John Crewdson reports in the Swamp blog. If Sarah Palin doesn’t hold her own, one says he’ll return all his McCain gear to wholesalers. Sales for the maverick’s T-shirts have “tanked” since...

China Ignored Scientists' Quake Warnings

Seismologists told of a major upcoming shake-up

(Newser) - Chinese officials ignored warnings from leading scientists of an upcoming earthquake in Sichuan Province, including one that almost pinpointed the date of the quake, the Times of London reports. Four seismologists predicted a blast of 6.7 or higher magnitude this year, while another suggested the rumble would occur within...

Here We Go Again...
 Here We Go Again... 
May 22, 2008 2:39 PM CDT

Here We Go Again...

Rockier-than-average hurricane season predicted; 5 possibly severe

(Newser) - Federal storm watchers warned of a possible 16 named storms, and five major hurricanes, this year, the Miami Herald reports. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced a 65% probability that the hurricane season, which stretches for 6 months from June 1, “may very well be a busy” one....

Super Bowl Prediction Central
Super Bowl Prediction Central
Feb 3, 2008 6:11 AM CST

Super Bowl Prediction Central

Prognostications out in from informed and clueless alike

(Newser) - Seems everyone has an idea about how things will go down tonight in Phoenix. The Vegas line currently hovers around 12 points in the Patriots' favor, but the Giants' Plaxico Burress has already promised a 23-17 upset victory by his team. ESPN's experts don't have a consensus prediction, although the...

NH Town Always Picks a Winner
NH Town Always Picks a Winner
Jan 8, 2008 5:53 PM CST

NH Town Always Picks a Winner

Hudson, pop. 25,000, has tabbed primary victors for 50 years

(Newser) - One New Hampshire town is in sync with the state and even the nation. Hudson, population 25,000, has picked the state's primary winners and national party nominees in the past 13 elections. "It's certainly been happening a long time for it to just be a coincidence," New...

Things That Won't Shake The Media World in 2008

BusinessWeek columnist takes a stab at '08 predictions

(Newser) - Overloaded with prediction lists, Business Week polishes the crystal ball and looks ahead to see what won't happen in the media world  in 2008.
  1. The writers won't win the current strike
  2. DreamWorks isn't going to leave Paramount after all
  3. Apple won't reinvent TV viewing
  4. "Juno" won't win an Oscar
...

Housing Slump Dampens '08 Prospects
Housing Slump Dampens '08 Prospects
Oct 10, 2007 12:38 PM CDT

Housing Slump Dampens '08 Prospects

Economists cut growth forecast; still predict better rate than '07

(Newser) - Economists cut projections for 2008 growth for a third consecutive month, Reuters reports, signaling the fallout from mortgage woes will be widespread and prolonged. A survey of 52 experts estimated the economy would expand 2.4% next year; they’d predicted 2.6% growth last month and 2.8% the...

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