GOP Faces Fallout From Flip of Mar-a-Lago Seat

After a Democrat flipped a state House seat for the district that includes Mar-a-Lago, Florida Republicans suddenly aren't so sure they want that victory lap on redistricting.

• Redistricting. The party has been eyeing a mid-decade redraw of the state's congressional map that could, in theory, add up to five GOP-held seats to an already lopsided 20–8 edge. Gov. Ron DeSantis has summoned lawmakers to Tallahassee for an April special session, citing court rulings that opened the door to revisiting districts drawn with racial considerations. But Emily Gregory's win has some Republicans warning that an aggressive power grab could boomerang, Politico reports. Another Democrat, Brian Nathan, appears to have flipped a state Senate seat in another special election, though the results are still in recount territory, reports WUSF.

• A warning from Jeffries. "We will crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries warned on X. Some Republicans have also warned that redistricting could endanger lawmakers in districts previously considered safe. "I think the Legislature needs to be very cognizant of the fact that if they get too aggressive … you could put incumbent members at risk," says Republican US Rep. Greg Steube, who represents the Sarasota area.
• Democrats see signs of momentum. USA Today, which describes the Palm Beach area as the "center of the GOP universe," reports that Democrats are hailing the win as a sign they can win "anywhere in the country." Democrats have now flipped around 30 legislative seats since Trump returned to office. Conservative commentators, however, say Democrats shouldn't read too much into a low-turnout election.

• "Unmistakable symbolism." The New York Times sees "unmistakable symbolism" in Gregory's win in what Democrats call "Trump's backyard." Gregory focused her campaign not on Trump but on issues like affordability, saying voters' concerns were being ignored in Tallahassee. "I focused on the issues that matter most to Florida families," she told CNN before the final result was in. "Everyone is feeling that affordability crisis and the last thing that Florida families needed when they're struggling is $4 gas."
• Gregory says Trump is welcome to call her. Gregory, a 40-year-old first-time candidate, won a district that Trump won by 11 points in 2024. Her Republican predecessor won by 19 points. She tells the AP that she's excited to represent all her constituents, including Trump. "I would love to have a conversation," she says. "He's welcome to call me, as I am his new state representative." The Democrat, who plans to run again in November, says she plans to focus on the bread-and-butter issues she campaigned on, not opposition to Trump. "I just see myself as very embedded in my community, very representative of District 87," she says. "And I'm so humbled and proud to be their representative."

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