Iranian Opposition Doesn't Go According to Allies' Plan

Israeli intelligence bet that war would crack Iran from the inside. So far, that wager is not paying off. After more than three weeks of US-Israeli strikes, the Islamic Republic's leadership remains in place, with analysts saying fear of domestic security forces has blunted the possibility of mass unrest. Officials told the New York Times that Mossad chief David Barnea had pitched Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Trump administration on a plan to trigger protests, riots, even regime collapse through assassinations and covert operations. President Trump publicly urged Iranians to "take over your government" once bombing stopped.

Mossad expected to "galvanize the Iranian opposition" once Iran's leaders were killed, per the Times of Israel. Some US and Israeli intelligence officers were skeptical of the whole thing from the outset and warned that Iranians were unlikely to rise up under bombardment, especially against a heavily armed state. The Washington Post reported that a State Department cable revealed that top Israeli officials, despite their call for an uprising, predicted to American diplomats that Iranians who poured into the streets in opposition to their government would "get slaughtered." Iran's government is ready to "fight to the end," the cable said.

A former Trump administration official raised another point, per the Times. "There's a good chunk of people who just want a better life, and they're just sidelined right now," said Nate Swanson, who was involved in negotiations with Iran until July. "They don't like the regime, but they don't want to die opposing it. That 60% is going to stay home." Another part of the plan has stalled: a Kurdish militia push from Iraq—in the face of US reluctance, Kurdish caution, and Turkish opposition. Current assessments now see Iran's hard-liners as likely to retain control, with any internal power struggle more apt to be among rival factions of the regime than democratic challengers. Behind closed doors, officials say, Netanyahu has voiced frustration that the promised uprising has yet to appear.