Oil isn't just flowing more slowly out of the Persian Gulf—it's barely moving at all, and nobody's sure when that might change. Intensifying Iranian strikes in and around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a US reluctance to send in warship escorts, have effectively frozen traffic through the narrow chokepoint that carries a big share of the world's crude. A Wall Street Journal analysis says it all adds up to the likelihood of a "prolonged" shutdown of the vital shipping lane.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard this week hit three cargo ships trying to get through the strait and vowed to target others. Two tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were also set ablaze by projectiles in Iraqi waters. US forces have responded by hitting Iranian naval, drone, and missile assets, but officials say mines, submarines, and swarms of small boats still make the 21-mile-wide passage a potential "kill box" for any ship trying to run it.
The fallout is already visible: oil has jumped back above $100 a barrel, gasoline prices are rising, and Gulf producers have slashed production by nearly 7 million barrels a day, with crude backing up onshore. Saudi Aramco's CEO warned a sustained blockage would have "catastrophic consequences" for global markets. Iran, under US and Israeli bombardment, is publicly framing the spike as leverage; its foreign minister boasted that prices have doubled since the conflict began.
President Trump has floated the idea of US-led naval escorts and said ships should keep using the route, but Navy officials say they haven't been ordered to do so and warn the risks are high and capacity limited. Even with escorts, analysts say only a fraction of the usual 100-plus ships a day could get through, and many owners won't move until they're convinced it's safe. More than 600 commercial vessels are already stuck inside the Gulf—evidence that the real fix likely isn't convoys, but a pause in the fighting. Read the full piece here.
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