One Critical Island Remains Off-Limits in US Strikes on Iran

One island in the Persian Gulf has become the target many hawks talk about—but no one has yet dared to hit. As the Guardian reports, Kharg Island, a five-mile-long coral outpost that handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, has so far been spared in the US-Israel air campaign, even as thousands of other sites in and around Iran have been bombed. Analysts say a strike on the hub, where up to 3 million barrels a day recently flowed in anticipation of conflict, could push oil toward $150 a barrel and trigger a shock that wouldn't quickly unwind.

The US has reportedly weighed options ranging from attacking to outright seizing Kharg, but experts say the consequences would reverberate through the global economy and deepen the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. JPMorgan warned in a statement that a "direct strike would immediately halt the bulk of Iran's crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure," per Reuters. There's also a political cost: destroying Kharg would undercut any future Iranian government by wiping out its main revenue source and would likely take years to repair. Seizing it isn't much cleaner, one analyst notes, because Iran couldn't export the oil and the US couldn't easily use it—leaving both sides, and world markets, in a costly stalemate.