US, Russia Nuclear Pact Expires Without a Fallback

The world's two biggest nuclear superpowers are no longer bound by restrictions on their arsenals. At midnight, the New START treaty between the US and Russia expired, lifting formal caps on how many long-range nuclear warheads each side can deploy and ending the inspections and data-sharing that let both countries keep tabs on the other, reports NPR. "There are no more guardrails," warned Christine Wormuth of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, noting this hasn't been the case for decades. So now what? It's a little unclear, but both sides say they are committed to getting a new pact in place:

• Russia: Vladimir Putin has floated a one-year informal extension of New START's limits while negotiators hunt for a new deal, but Washington hasn't accepted. On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow views the treaty's expiration "negatively," adding that Russia will maintain its "responsible, thorough approach to stability when it comes to nuclear weapons," per the AP. He said the Kremlin is open to new dialogue at any point.
• White House: President Trump has said he wants China to be part of any new deal, but Beijing has rebuffed the suggestion. Trump "will decide the path forward on nuclear arms control, which he will clarify on his own timeline," said a spokesperson.
• Extension? Axios reports that the US and Russia are, in fact, close to a deal to extend the pact for another six months, though neither side has confirmed.
• Background: New START, negotiated under former President Obama and extended once in 2021, had limited each side to 1,550 deployed warheads and required extensive notifications and on-site inspections—more than 25,000 movement reports over 15 years. Arms-control experts credit those measures with tamping down suspicion and keeping relations between the world's two biggest nuclear powers more predictable.