The US murder rate appears to have fallen to its lowest level in well over a century. A new analysis from the nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice—based on incomplete FBI data, crime figures from 40 cities, and other sources—estimates the 2025 national homicide rate will be the lowest since at least 1900, owing to "the largest single-year percentage drop" on record. From 2024 to 2025, homicides fell 21%, gun assaults 22%, robberies 23%, and carjackings 43%. Compared with 2019, homicides were down 25%, gun assaults 13%, and carjackings 29%, per the New York Times. For the first time since the pandemic, all seven major categories of violent crime tracked fell below their pre-2020 levels. Drug offenses increased, though they, too, remained below 2019 levels.
The drop has been widespread but uneven. Baltimore hit a modern-era low with a roughly 60% decline in killings, also observed in Richmond, Virginia. Salt Lake City, Chattanooga, and El Paso each saw their homicide rates cut roughly in half in the same time, while Los Angeles' murder rate plunged 39% and New York City's 10%, per
CBS News. Of 35 cities analyzed for murder, all but eight are now below their pre-pandemic levels. Milwaukee, Austin, and Minneapolis still sit well above 2019, though Austin and Minneapolis saw sharp declines just in the last year. Public perception is starting to catch up: a
Gallup poll last October found fewer Americans saying crime had worsened in the previous year, and fear about crime in their own neighborhoods also eased.
President Trump, who returned to office after campaigning on warnings of migrant-driven violence, has pointed to the deployment of National Guard troops and aggressive immigration enforcement in cities like Washington and Minneapolis as proof his policies are working. But criminologists interviewed by the Times say there is little evidence that federal actions explain the national trend. Crime was "already declining" before Trump resumed office, according to the outlet, which found only 7% of immigration detainees had prior violent convictions. Some experts see violence decreasing as cybercrime rages. Others point to changing social behavior, therapy programs, and initiatives focused on those most likely to commit violence.
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