Chinese Are Giving Birth Like It's 1738

China's leaders are urging citizens to have more children, but the country's demographic slide is only getting steeper. Official data released Monday show China recorded just 7.92 million births in 2025, down 17% from 9.54 million the year before, for a birthrate of 5.63 per 1,000 people—the lowest since the People's Republic was founded in 1949, per the New York Times. One demographer suggests births are now "roughly the same level as in 1738," when China had a population of 150 million, per the Guardian. Deaths, meanwhile, climbed to 11.31 million for a rate of 8.04 per 1,000 people—the highest since 1968. This marks the fourth consecutive year deaths have outnumbered births. The numbers landed alongside rosier economic news: reported growth of 5% last year.

Beijing has tried a broad mix of carrots and sticks to reverse the declining birthrate, from cash and housing subsidies to exhortations about a "new type of marriage and childbearing culture." Local officials have gone further, with policies such as tracking women's menstrual cycles and recommending fewer non-medically necessary abortions. On Jan. 1, authorities added a 13% value-added tax to condoms and contraceptive drugs, a move not officially tied to population policy but widely seen as another nudge toward parenthood. "I'll still use them," said 28-year-old Jonathan Zhu, who cited financial stress as his main reason for postponing children. Online, the tax drew more sarcasm than support, with critical posts quietly disappearing from social media.

Experts warn that such efforts are unlikely to move the needle. Demographers say China has already crossed into long-term population decline, with fertility so low that even aggressive policies are unlikely to restore previous levels. Young Chinese confront a slowing economy, high housing costs, a weak social safety net, and stubborn youth unemployment—conditions that make starting a family a risky financial bet. Even marriage is becoming less popular. The demographic squeeze is arriving faster than Beijing once anticipated, pressuring underfunded pension and health systems as the population ages rapidly. By 2035, the number of people 60 and older is projected to hit 400 million, even as fewer workers pay into public funds.