Mass Killings in US Hit the Lowest Level Since 2006

A shooting last weekend at a children's birthday party in California that left four dead was the 17th mass killing this year—the lowest number recorded since 2006, according to a database maintained by the AP and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University. Experts warn that the drop doesn't necessarily mean safer days are here to stay and that it could simply represent a return to average levels. "Sir Isaac Newton never studied crime, but he [said], 'What goes up must come down,'" says James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminologist. The current drop in numbers is more likely what statisticians call a "regression to the mean," he said, representing a return to more average crime levels after an unusual spike in mass killings in 2018 and 2019.

"Will 2026 see a decline? I wouldn't bet on it," Fox says. "What goes down must also go back up." Fox, who manages the database, says mass killings—defined as incidents in which four or more people are killed in a 24-hour period, not including the killer—were down about 24% this year compared with 2024, which in turn was about a 20% drop compared with 2023. Mass killings are rare, however, and that means the numbers are volatile, says James Densley, a Metropolitan State University professor. "Because there's only a few dozen mass killings in a year, a small change could look like a wave or a collapse," when really it's just a return to more typical levels, Densley says.

But there are some things that might be contributing to the drop, Densley says, including an overall decline in homicide and violent crime rates, which peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improvements in the immediate response to mass shootings and other mass casualty incidents could also be playing a part, he says. Crime is complex, and academics aren't great at assessing the reasons behind crime rate changes, says Eric Madfis, a professor of criminal justice at University of Washington, Tacoma.

"It's multicausal," Madfis notes. "It's never going to be just one thing." He adds that, while "true that gun violence and gun violence deaths are down ... we still have exceedingly high rates and numbers of mass shootings compared to anywhere else in the world." About 82% of this year's mass killings involved a firearm. Since 2006, 3,234 people have died in mass killings, and 81% of them were shooting victims. More here.