For the first time in 14 years, Apple is poised to once again ship more smartphones than Samsung. A new report from Counterpoint Research projects Apple will ship about 243 million iPhones this year, edging out Samsung's expected 235 million units, per CNBC. This would give Apple a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, compared to Samsung's 18.7%. Bloomberg now describes Apple as the "world's largest smartphone maker" and "No. 1 phone seller," though shipments do not equal sales. The momentum is largely attributed to strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, with sales in the first month 12% higher than that of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e. In China, a key market for Apple, sales were up 18%.
The report points to a key factor behind Apple's surge: the wave of consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now ready to upgrade. In addition, Samsung is facing new pressure in the low- and mid-tier segments from Chinese competitors, which could make it harder for the company to reclaim the top spot in the near future. Counterpoint forecasts that Apple could keep the lead in global smartphone shipments through 2029. Contributing factors include a robust market for second-hand iPhones—358 million used devices were sold between 2023 and mid-2025—and the likelihood that many of those buyers will eventually upgrade to new iPhones.
Looking ahead, Apple—benefiting from an improved US-China trade relationship and a weaker dollar helping with purchases in emerging markets—is expected to expand its lineup with an entry-level iPhone 17e and possibly a foldable model. Counterpoint also points to upcoming improvements to Siri and a significant iPhone design update slated for 2027 as factors that could help Apple maintain its lead.
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