We're Finally Getting September's Jobs Report

The Labor Department will release its numbers on September hiring and unemployment next Thursday, a month and a half late, marking the beginning of the end of a data drought caused by the 43-day federal government shutdown. The statistical blackout meant that the Federal Reserve, businesses, policymakers, and investors have largely been in the dark about inflation, job creation, GDP growth, and other measures of the US economic health since late summer, per the AP.

Thomas Simons and Michael Bacolas at Jefferies, a financial firm, wrote in a commentary Friday that more than 30 reports from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau were delayed by the political standoff. Simons expects the September employment report to show that employers added 65,000 jobs that month—unimpressive, but up from a meager 22,000 in August. He figures that unemployment remained at a low 4.3%.

The Labor Department didn't release its weekly report on the number of Americans signing up for unemployment benefits for seven straight weeks. That jobless claims report is seen as a potential early indicator of where the labor market is headed. The DOL did release its consumer price index for September—the most popular measurement of inflation—nine days late, on Oct. 24. The government made an exception for that report due to its urgency: It's used to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment for tens of millions of Americans receiving Social Security and other federal benefits.

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The interruption of federal economic statistics came at an awkward time. President Trump's policies—sweeping, ever-changing import taxes and massive deportations of people working in the United States illegally—are creating uncertainty about the economic outlook. And the economy has sent conflicting signals: Economic growth looked solid at midyear and unemployment has been low. But job growth has lost momentum, and inflation has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, partly because of the impact of Trump's tariffs. More here.