Pollsters were caught off guard by the scale of Democratic wins in this week's gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill's 13-point victory far outpaced the final Real Clear Politics polling average, which predicted a narrow 3-point lead. The discrepancy prompted Mike Madrid, a former GOP official, to call it "one of the bigger misses in recent polling history," per the Wall Street Journal. In Virginia, the miss was less severe, but still notable: Real Clear Politics' polling average showed Abigail Spanberger ahead by 10 points; she won by about 15.
Analysts point to two main reasons for the polling errors. First, pollsters struggled to predict who would actually show up to vote. Many relied on models based on recent elections when Democratic turnout was low. This year, however, Democratic voters appeared far more energized, reminiscent of turnout patterns after President Trump's first election in 2016. Pollster Angela Kuefler said New Jersey polls using the 2017 electorate as a template were the most accurate, showing Sherill winning by 12 or 13 points.
A second factor was a stronger-than-expected showing by Latino voters. Andrei Roman of Atlas Intel said his firm's poll, showing Sherill with just a 1-point lead, missed badly due in part to underestimating Latino turnout. Though Trump won a higher percentage of the Latino vote than any Republican presidential candidate in history in 2024, there are signs that Latinos are moving away from the president, NPR reports, noting Sherrill and Spanberger "both won Latinos by 2-to-1 margins." Sherrill won Passaic County, with a major Latino population, by 15 points, compared to Trump's 3.
,
uBlock 
,
and
Ghostery 
)
