Brazil Has a New Plan to Save Earth's Tropical Forests

Brazil will on Thursday announce the launch of an ambitious new investment fund designed to pay countries to keep their tropical forests intact. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility—set to be announced at COP30, the United Nations global climate conference in Belém—aims to distribute up to $4 billion annually to the 74 countries that the New York Times reports host tropical forests. The idea is straightforward: countries use satellite imagery to prove their forests are still standing, and in return, they get paid—roughly $1.60 per acre of preserved forest.

Though Yale 360 reports "the TFFF's backers see the fund as a potential jewel in the crown of green capitalism, with bond markets coming to the rescue of the rainforests," it faces significant hurdles. Bloomberg reports it needs an initial $10 billion from governments and philanthropies to get off the ground; that's down from an initially stated goal of $25 billion, and it's a sum that has yet to be raised (Brazil has contributed $1 billion so far, and the UK is reportedly toying with the idea of ponying up $1 billion). Another $100 billion would be contributed by private investors, who could expect a roughly 5% return. The World Bank has agreed to manage the fund.

Critics argue that the payments may not be generous enough to outcompete the profits of logging, mining, and industrial agriculture, which have been the main drivers of deforestation in recent decades. There's also concern that the fund isn't "future-proof," as changing administrations could usher in different priorities regarding forests.

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Some environmentalists note the fund's eligibility threshold—areas with as little as 20% forest cover—is too low (Yale 360 reports most "intact moist tropical forests" have closer to 80% cover), and that countries with deforestation rates above 0.5% are excluded, leaving out major players like Indonesia. Unlike previous schemes that relied on carbon credits, which have been plagued by verification and integrity issues, this fund is designed to be simpler: just show the trees are still there. If Brazil's vision comes to life, the Times reports the fund "would represent nearly three times the current volume of international forest financing."