Meteorologists are sounding alarms about Tropical Storm Melissa, which has the potential to become a Category 5 hurricane—and, according to some, one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic if the conditions are right. Now churning in the central Caribbean, the slow-moving storm's path and intensity remain highly unpredictable, according to the National Hurricane Center, per USA Today.
Forecasters emphasize Melissa will spend the next week over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic, fueling the likelihood of becoming a major hurricane. The official forecast predicts Category 4 strength by the weekend, with sustained winds of 130mph. Some models show the storm making a turn toward Hispaniola, while others show it moving into the western Caribbean, per USA Today. If Melissa follows a westward path south of Jamaica, "we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic," says Andrew Hazelton of the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.
There's a very low chance of a US impact. But Melissa—currently moving at just 2mph, or "slower than an average person's walking speed," per CNN—could linger near the mountainous islands in the Caribbean, including Jamaica and Hispaniola, dumping up to three or four feet of rain and triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Meteorologist Matt Lanza says it will be "a tremendous rainmaker for somewhere, depending on exactly where it stalls out."