Wildfire Smoke Poised to Be Top Climate Health Threat

A new study forecasts that wildfire smoke will become the leading climate-related health hazard in the United States, eclipsing risks like extreme heat by midcentury. The analysis estimates that smoke is already responsible for upward of 41,000 excess deaths annually—a figure more than double previous estimates. Researchers project that by 2050, this number could climb by another 26,500 to 30,000, as climate change drives more frequent and intense wildfires, per NBC News. "Those are huge numbers," Stony Brook University's Minghao Qiu, lead author of the paper published Thursday in Nature, tells the Washington Post. "This is one of the most costly and important climate impacts in the US."

Study co-author and Stanford professor Marshall Burke notes that wildfire smoke is a bigger health threat than previously understood. Fine particles in smoke can exacerbate asthma and increase cancer risks and are linked to preterm births and miscarriages. The study suggests that the economic toll from smoke-related deaths now surpasses any other climate-driven financial impact, including those from heat events or crop losses. Researchers say that cost could reach $608 billion in 2050, which is "more than all other monetary damages from climate change combined," per the Post.

Decades of improvement in US air quality, largely due to the Clean Air Act, are being reversed as smoke from wildfires in the West and Canada drifts across the country. Dr. Joel Kaufman of the University of Washington, who wasn't involved in the research, tells NBC that wildfire smoke may be even more toxic than other forms of air pollution, especially when fires consume human-made materials.

story continues below

The findings arrive as the Environmental Protection Agency under the Trump administration considers rescinding the "endangerment finding," a legal basis for regulating greenhouse gases. Public health experts like Dr. John Balmes of the American Lung Association say studies like this reinforce the link between climate change, wildfires, and the resulting impacts to human health.