Coral reefs in the Atlantic could stop growing and face near-total collapse by the end of the century if global temperatures keep climbing, according to a new study. Researchers examined more than 400 reefs in the region and found that over 70% could begin to degrade by 2040—even under the best climate scenarios. The outlook grows bleaker with higher temperatures: If warming tops 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by century's end, 99% of Atlantic corals could stop growing and fall victim to erosion, per the New York Times.
University of Exeter scientists led a team that used ancient coral records in the exposed seabed—some more than 10,000 years old—to understand how reefs once kept pace with rising seas. They describe a historical balance between growth and erosion, but one now lost as climate change accelerates beyond the reefs' ability to adapt. At this point, 60% of reefs near Florida and 40% near Mexico have nearly stopped growing, according to coral reef geoscientist Chris Perry, lead author of the study published Wednesday in Nature.
The situation has been worsened by recent marine heat waves, which contribute to mass bleaching events that have damaged over 80% of the world's corals since 2023. Perry describes "off-the-scale warming, the magnitude and longevity of which has never been seen in the region." Corals grow slowly and two key fast-growing species are highly vulnerable to heat. While some scientists are exploring solutions like breeding heat-resistant coral varieties or hybrid reef structures, the study's authors caution that restoration alone isn't enough if warming continues. "Rapid climate mitigation actions" are also needed, per a release.
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