Only three months ago, Nate Silver gave Zohran Mamdani a meager 17% of becoming the next mayor of New York City. Today? The Democratic candidate is the clear favorite over Andrew Cuomo, incumbent Eric Adams, and Curtis Sliwa—and by a decent margin, Silver writes at his Silver Bulletin.
- The betting platform Polymarket gives Mamdani an 82% chance of winning, and that feels about right to Silver. In fact, it might even understate things, he adds. Cuomo is at 17%, Adams at 1%, and Sliwa below that.