Americans Are Growing Less Sure They Can Land New Work

Americans' belief in their ability to land a new job has hit a record low, according to a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In August, respondents put their "perceived probability" of finding work after a job loss at just 44.9%—down 5.8 points and the weakest reading since the survey began in 2013. From the survey: "The decline was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, but it was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education."

At the same time, 39.1% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to climb in the next year; that's a 1.7-point rise, per CBS News. The survey also put respondents' perceived probability of losing their job in the next year at 14.5%—that's about 1 in 7. The mood shift comes amid disappointing job market signals. Recent government reports show slower hiring and rising unemployment, with just 22,000 jobs added in August and the jobless rate edging up to 4.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday said employers added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially thought from April 2024 through March 2025.

The take from NerdWallet economist Elizabeth Renter, per CNBC: "Consumers are feeling down about job-finding opportunities, and those feelings are wholly appropriate. It's very difficult to find work right now. And unlikely to get better anytime soon. Employers aren't hiring much, so workers are stuck job-hugging, clinging to their current jobs because the market isn't favorable to job seekers."