New Findings on Crucial Atlantic Current a Huge 'Wake-Up Call'

A new study suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation—a key current system that helps regulate the planet's climate—can no longer be considered a remote possibility. The AMOC, which brings warm water from the tropics to Europe and the Arctic, is currently at its weakest in 1,600 years, largely due to climate change, per the Guardian.

For their study published in the Environmental Research Letters journal, scientists extended the timeline of climate models to the years 2300 and 2500, beyond the more usual 2100 cutoff. Their findings indicate that if carbon emissions remain high, 70% of the models show an eventual collapse of the AMOC; even with moderate emissions, collapse occurs in 37% of models, and in 25% of scenarios where emissions are kept low. The tipping point that would make a shutdown inevitable could be reached within the next 10 to 20 years, though the actual collapse may not occur for another 50 to 100 years.

A related study cited by Politico offers a similar warning. "Another serious climate wake-up call," Wopke Hoekstra, Europe's climate commissioner, wrote in a social media post of those findings. The consequences of an AMOC failure like this are substantial. It could shift rainfall patterns, disrupt food production for millions, cool Western Europe dramatically, and add to rising sea levels. "Even a 10% chance of an AMOC collapse would be far too high," said professor Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the first study's authors, who notes the risk now appears higher than previously thought, per the Guardian. "Quite shocking," he says of the results.

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While there's still uncertainty about the exact timeline and likelihood, the study's authors stress that significant emissions cuts are needed to minimize the risk. Other experts caution that projections are uncertain due to limited direct observations and small sample sizes in the long-term models, but they agree that the current trajectory is cause for concern and that a major weakening could still have serious impacts. (The Gulf Stream, part of the larger AMOC currents system, isn't doing too hot, either.)