On Immigrant Numbers, a 'Clear Win' for Trump

The United States' immigrant population has shrunk for the first time in decades, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of recent census data. Between January and June, the number of foreign-born residents—both legal and undocumented—fell by almost 1.5 million, dropping to 51.9 million. Driving the reversal are the Trump administration's aggressive immigration policies and enforcement, which have led to increased deportations and a notable uptick in voluntary departures, reports the New York Times. Pew notes that this decline in the nation's immigrant population, which Axios calls a "clear win" for the Trump administration, comes "after more than 50 years of rapid growth."

Administration officials have praised the reduction, citing less strain on public services and a stronger job market. Still, economists and demographers warn that a prolonged decline in immigration could hit the US economy hard, per the Times. "A rapid decline in immigration is going to cause economic harm," said economist Tara Watson, who co-authored a July report by the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute on Trump's immigration policies. Sectors like agriculture, health care, and hospitality, which rely heavily on immigrant labor, are already experiencing worker shortages. With many baby boomers retiring, some experts argue that the country can ill afford to lose this workforce.

The US' policy shift includes tightened asylum rules and stricter visa requirements. The administration has also launched a self-deportation initiative, offering incentives like airfare and cash to those who leave voluntarily. As the US population ages and birth rates fall, some analysts warn that continued negative net immigration could erode the nation's competitiveness for global talent and intensify labor shortages. Pew does note that some of the drop in the population number may be the result of immigrants being wary to fill out government surveys. The nonpartisan think tank also adds that the United States is still "home to more immigrants than any other country."