Powell's Last Jackson Hole Speech Could Be a Big One

It's not clear whether Fed chief will 'stick to his guns' on economic restraint
Posted Aug 22, 2025 5:55 AM CDT
Updated Aug 22, 2025 6:11 AM CDT
Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Will Be Closely Watched
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, July 30, 2025, in Washington.   (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to take center stage at the Jackson Hole summit Friday morning, where his remarks could influence the course of financial markets and monetary policy for months to come. At 10am Eastern investors will be listening closely for any hint that the Fed is eyeing an interest rate cut in September—a move that many on Wall Street have been hoping for, but have grown less certain about recently, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Despite persistent lobbying from the Trump administration to lower borrowing costs, the decision is anything but clear-cut. Robust economic numbers and rising inflation have made the path forward more complicated, prompting some to rethink earlier bets on an imminent rate cut. This will be Powell's final keynote speech at the annual gathering of Fed officials and central bankers from other countries, which has been where policy shifts have been declared in previous years, the Washington Post reports. In his speech last year, he said "the time has come" for rate cuts after years of keeping rates high to fight inflation.

  • Rob Waldner, head of macro research at Invesco, predicts that Powell will signal a willingness Friday to resume rate cuts, even though he might be seen as bowing to pressure from Trump. "He's in this really difficult situation," Waldner tells the Post. "He wants to finish up his term and walk away as somebody who delivered a great outcome for the US economy and was not a political creature."
  • Mizuho Bank believes Powell might go the other way. "The upshot is that the sands are arguably shifting, but Jackson Hole may not be where lingering hawkish restraint goes to die," the bank said in a commentary, per the AP. "In other words, Powell may stick to his guns on (interim) restraint."

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