The Dollar Just Had Its Worst Start to a Year Since 1973

The US dollar has experienced its steepest decline at the start of a year since the early 1970s, sparking concerns about the nation's financial standing and the global economic order. The downward trend comes amid significant policy changes under President Trump, including aggressive tariffs and an increasingly isolationist approach, which have unsettled international investors and affected confidence in the US economy despite the strong stock market, the New York Times reports. The dollar's drop of more 10% against a basket of major international currencies over the past six months marks its worst first-half performance since 1973, and its worst half-year since the second half of 1991.

The weakening dollar makes overseas travel more expensive for Americans and discourages foreign investment in the US, while potentially benefiting exporters by making US goods cheaper abroad—though these effects are complicated by ongoing trade tensions, the Times notes. "Trump's tariffs, the fact that many investors view his administration as somewhat chaotic, along with concerns over US national debt have seen the dollar fall out of favor," Trade Nation market analyst David Morrison tells the Guardian.

The dollar surged after Trump was re-elected but it peaked just before he took office and started to slide as hopes of a fully pro-business administration faded, the Times reports. Because the decline started when the dollar was at a relatively high level, it isn't especially weak by historical standards, but analysts say the "Big Beautiful Bill," which will add trillions to the deficit over the next decade, is likely to weaken it further. "Full-scale de-dollarization, if it ever comes, is still a long way away," according to Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock. "But there is one dynamic playing out that could significantly raise that risk: increasing government debt."